The Rich Get Richer

It's official: Former Memphis recruit Xavier Henry is signing with Kansas. Henry is the #3 recruit in the country, originally part of Calipari's amazing '09 hall. With Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich coming back, Kansas was already the favorite before Henry's signing. Now they're a unanimous #1.

Zeked

...and introducing your 2010 NCAA champions: THE FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY GOLLLLDDDENNN PANNN-THERS!!!

Okay, not quite. But whens the last time ESPN had half a dozen articles with the words "Florida" and "International" together in the same sentence?

As I've been preaching on street corners for six years now, Isaiah Thomas is an emissary of Satan and, most likely, a sign of the end times. He bankrupted an entire basketball league, then ruined my favorite NBA team for a decade. Zeke + the gnats in the 2007 MLB playoffs make me think that God really does hate New York sports teams.

That said, this is a good hire. The one thing Isaiah excelled in at NY was evaluating college players. In the rare year where he didn't trade our draft picks away, we picked up stellar talents like David Lee, Trevor Ariza and Wilson Chandler. If Isaiah proves as adept at finding HS diamonds in the rough, FIU could be back in the tournament for the first time since 1995.

Beyond that, what's the worst that could happen? Okay, besides Zeke sexually abusing cheerleaders and/or getting the team addicted to sleeping pills. This is a school located in an area relatively bereft of basketball talent; and FIU must compete against Florida, Miami and half the SEC for the few players who do come out of the region.

For all his failings off the court, Zeke's name still carries a lot of weight with kids. With him at the helm they should be able to recruit bigger and recruit smarter. That said, don't expect any Cinderella runs from the Golden(?) Panthers. A one-and-done NCAA tournament appearance would be considered a huge victory for a team with only one NCAA tourny bid in its history (as a 16-seed, no less). Zeke will coach the team until he loses interest or finds an NBA team stupid enough to give him another shot at management (hello, Clippers?).

And the very best part of the hire?
Ladies and gentlemen of Madison Square Garden: Isaiah Thomas has left the building.

Forde don't need no bailout

Great article by Pat Forde ranking the weirdest rebound jobs in college basketball.
"So just how strange is Isaiah to FIU?"

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat
&id=4070102&sportCat=ncb

Tomorrow: My take on Isaiah. It might surprise you.

She's dead, Jim

Jonny Flynn will leave Syracuse early and enter the draft. Cuse & coach Jim Boeheim just took a big hit, from Top 5 team to Final Four dark horse.

Meanwhile, Kansas stars Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich are pulling a Rodney Dangerfield and going back to school. That there's your pre-season #1, folks.

Up the Down Coaching Ladder

So (former) Arizona interim coach Russ Pennell landed a head coaching job D-II Grand Canyon State. Given his comments, a D-II job wasn't exactly the "thank you" he expected after cleaning up Lute "Do I Have Dementia?" Olson's mess and taking Arizona to the Sweet 16. Pennell said that he couldn't go back to being an assistant after taking the reins of a top shelf program...and then Lord Acton and Winston Churchill had a good laugh. Russ, I hope you took photos, because the Louisville blowout is the last you'll see of high major head coaching job for a loooooonng time.

On the surface, it seems counterintuitive that an unknown coach taking a 12-seed to the Sweet 16 should take such a nosedive down the coaching ladder. Not sp in this case.

MYTH: Arizona was in the Sweet 16 and is therefore one of the top 16 teams in the country.

FACT: Arizona pulled off one minor upset and played the most favorable schedule of any Sweet 16 team.

Arizona beating Utah is an upset on paper but three out of four 12-seeds beat 5-seeds, making 5-seeds a rarer breed this year. Utah was a team that had peaked in January and limped to the finish line (just like my nearest and dearest 5-seed Illinois). Arizona was also the most talented 12-seed, with three NBA players on their roster. More importantly, Zona was lucky enough to draw the lowest remaining seed in its second round game in 13-seed Cleveland State. To reiterate for effect, once Arizona upset Utah, they become the FAVORITE in their second round game. And of course in the Sweet 16, Louisville did something to the Wildcats so nasty that it's illegal in 47 states.

But let's take a step back and remember that Arizona really had no business playing in the tournament. The committee must have been drinking from Lute Olson's water bottle, because only a clinically insane group of people would have put Arizona ahead of St. Mary's, Providence and San Diego State. Despite the coaching turmoil, the Wildcats boast three NBA players on their team in Chase Budinger, Nic Wise and Jordan Hill (all potential first-rounders at that). This is a team that, like most Arizona teams in the last 4 years, lacked any kind of chemistry. And when there's buttloads of talent and little success to show for it, whom do you blame? Yep. Sorry Rusty.

Russ doesn't really deserve much credit but to be fair, he shouldn't shoulder the blame either. From what I've read about the team, the Wildcats were essentially coached by committee with Pennell as the figurehead. You can't be surprised at the bad coaching because the guys at the helm never expected to be put in that situation until two weeks before the start of the season.

All that said, I'm a bit surprised that some desperate low-major D-I program didn't offer him the head job just to make a splash (Yes, that IS a hint at an upcoming Isaiah Thomas/Florida International post). But strange as it seems, the jump down to Grand Canyon State is actually a jump up. I don't mean to knock Russ, I'm just saying that his Sweet 16 run looks more impressive than it is. Really, I have no idea how good or bad a coach Russ Pennell is. I haven't seen him recruit, I haven't seen him work a full season and I have no idea how big a role he really played at Arizona this past year.

Ultimately, the burden falls on Lutey Tooty, who left the program in such disarray, exiting with such a lack of dignity and class that it's amazing they still let him in the building.* And as bitchy as Russ was on the way out the door, he did let slip one nugget of truth: Arizona's been lost for the last three years and Wildcats fans are going to feel the pain for another three, no matter if the coach is Pennell, Sean Miller or Buddha himself. At least Zona fans can be confident that no matter how miserably they tank next year, there will still be a 12-seed waiting or them.

*Some months back, Pat Forde wrote an excellent article about how Lute's departure screwed up the program. Available at http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&id=3660973&sportCat=ncb

Early NBA draft entries

The deadline for declaring has passed. Unless specifically noted, all players will hire agents and forfeit college eligibility. Players who have not hired an agent have until June 15 to pull their names from the draft and return to college.

DOMINIQUE ARCHIE (G, Jr) - South Carolina - Has not hired an agent

DERRICK BROWN (F, Jr) - Xavier - Has not hired an agent

DEJUAN BLAIR (PF, So) - Pittsburgh

CHASE BUDINGER (G/F, Jr) - Arizona

NICK CALATHES (G, So) - Florida - Has not hired an agent

EARL CLARK (F, Jr) - Louisville

DWAYNE COLLINS (PF, Jr) - Miami - Has not hired an agent

BRANDON COSTNER (PF, Jr) - NC State - Has not hired an agent

STEPHEN CURRY (G, Jr) - Davidson

BRYAN DAVIS (PF, Jr) - Texas A&M - Has not hired an agent

AUSTIN DAYE (F, So) - Gonzaga - Has not hired an agent

DEMAR DEROZAN (G/F, Fr) - USC

ERIC DEVENDORF (G, Jr) - Syracuse - Has not hired an agent

DEVAN DOWNEY (G, Jr) - South Carolina - Has not hired an agent

OSIRIS ELDRIDGE (SG, Jr) - Illinois State - Has not hired an agent

WAYNE ELLINGTON (SG, Jr) - North Carolina

CHINEMELU ELONU (F/C, Jr) - Texas A&M - Has not hired an agent

TYREKE EVANS (G, Fr) - Memphis - Has not hired an agent

RODERICK FLEMINGS (SG, Jr) - Hawaii - Has not hired an agent

JONNY FLYNN (PG, So) - Syracuse

TAJ GIBSON (F, Jr) - USC

BLAKE GRIFFIN (PF, So) - Oklahoma

DANIEL HACKETT (PG, Jr) - USC

LUKE HARANGODY (F/C, Jr) - Notre Dame - Has not hired an agent

JAMES HARDEN (SG, So) - Arizona State

PAUL HARRIS (G/F, Jr) - Syracuse - Has not hired an agent

GERALD HENDERSON (SG, Jr) - Duke

JORDAN HILL (PF, Jr) - Arizona

JRUE HOLLIDAY (G, Fr) - UCLA - Has not hired an agent

DAMION JAMES (F, Jr) - Texas - Has not hired an agent

JAMES JOHNSON (F, So) - Wake Forest

MAC KOSHWAL (C, So) - DePaul - Has not hired an agent

GANI LAWAL (F, So) - Georgia Tech

TY LAWSON (PG, Jr) - North Carolina

ATER MAJOK (C, Fr) - Connecticut - Has not hired an agent

JODIE MEEKS (SG, Jr) - Kentucky - Has not hired an agent

PATTY MILLS (PG, So) - St. Mary's - Has not hired an agent

TASMIN MITCHELL (F, Jr) - LSU - Has not hired an agent

BJ MULLENS (C, Fr) - Ohio State

SCOTTIE REYNOLDS (G, Jr) - Villanova - Has not hired an agent

DONALD SLOAN (G, Jr) - Texas A&M - Has not hired an agent

TYLER SMITH (G/F, Jr) - Tennessee - Has not hired an agent

DAJUAN SUMMERS (F, Jr) - Georgetown

SHAWN TAGGART (F, Jr) - Memphis - Has not hired an agent

JEFF TEAGUE (G, So) - Wake Forest - Has not hired an agent

JONATHAN TAVERNARI (SF, Jr) - BYU - Has not hired an agent

HASHEEM THABEET (C, Jr) - Connecticut

DAR TUCKER (G/F, So) - DePaul

JARVIS VARNADO (PF, Jr) - Mississippi State - Has not hired an agent

GREIVIS VASQUEZ (PG, Jr) - Maryland - Has not hired an agent

MICHAEL WASHINGTON (PF) - Arkansas - Has not hired an agent

JEREMY WISE (PF, Jr) - Southern Miss - Has not hired an agent

NIC WISE (G, Jr) - Arizona - Has not hired an agent

...and last but not least

Congrats to the UConn Lady Huskies on a perfect 39-0 season. It's their 6th championship in 15 years, and their 3rd undefeated season--an amazing feat that no men's team not named UCLA has come close to matching.

UConn's 6 team championship puts them in 2nd place behind Tennessee (8). There have been 28 Women's NCAA tournaments, and Tennessee and UConn have combined to win half of them. Total domination.

Geno Auriemma, you've got a strange name and you're kind of creepy, but I salute you.

A happy ending? An ending.

Congrats to the Tarheels on their second championship in 5 years. Their fifth team championship ties them with Indiana for third on the all-time list, behind UCLA (11) and Kentucky (7). Roy Williams now has as many championships with the Heels as Dean Smith does. Scary.

I thought it would be a closer game, but UNC did the exact same thing to MSU that they did in December: Run. And run fast. MSU just couldn't keep up, and couldn't stop the 3 ball.

Anyone who didn't pick UNC to win it all is an idiot. Anyone who picked UNC to lose before the Final Four is completely brain dead. And for those who picked Gonzaga to upset UNC in the Sweet 16? You might as well adopt the surname "Bush" and run for president.

The rest of the field was wide open, but there hasn't been a more obvious championship pick since Kentucky in 1996. The only other one that comes close is UConn in 2004. UNC had too much talent, too much athleticism and too many stars. They take the old "best defense is a good offense" cliche in the most literal sense: They're so fast offensively that it wears teams out, so that the opponent doesn't have the energy to keep up on offense.

I'll give you my 2010 pick once we know who's going pro, but right now Kansas and Syracuse are both looking very good. Here's my only prediction for right now: Arizona's NCAA-long streak of 25 straight NCAA tournaments will end next year. Ah, who am I kidding, they'll go 6-25 and the committee will still give them a 12-seed for trying hard.

And thus the best 2 1/2 weeks of the year comes to a close. Shed a tear and pour one out. It's been a great season and a fun tournament.

Championship Game facts

As I wait in the Phoenix airport, here are some facts about tonight's game that you might not see anywhere else:

- This is the 12th championship game between teams that have previously won a title. Of the previous 11 games, the more recent winner has prevailed 7 times. UNC falls into this category--they last won the title in 2005, while MSU last won in 2000. The previous matchups:
1949: Kentucky over Oklahoma State
1953: Indiana over Kansas
1962: Cincinnati over Ohio State
1968: UCLA over UNC
1975: UCLA over Kentucky
1981: Indiana over UNC
1992: Duke over Michigan
1993: UNC over Michigan
1995: UCLA over Arkansas
2001: Duke over Arizona
2007: Florida over Ohio State

- Michigan State is 2-0 all-time in the title game. They appeared as a 2-seed in 1979 and a 1-seed in 2000.

- UNC is 4-4 all-time in the title game. They are undefeated as a 1-seed in the championship game. They appeared as a 2-seed in 1981 (loss to Indiana), a 1-seed in 1982, 1993 and 2005. Their previous four appearances came before seeding began in 1979.

- Tom Izzo appears in his 3rd championship game, all with MSU. Roy Williams appears in his 4th championship game. He lost twice with Kansas in 1991 and 2003 and won with UNC in 2005.

- 1-seeds are 5-2 against 2-seeds in the championship game. This is the first such matchup since 1-seed Duke beat 2-seed Arizona in 2001. The only 2-seeds to beat 1-seeds are Louisville over Duke in 1986 and of course, Michigan State over Indiana State in 1979.

- If Michigan State wins, they will be only the second team to beat three 1-seeds in a tournament. The other was 4-seed Arizona in 1997. They defeate 1-seeds Kansas (Sweet 16), Minnesota (Final Four) and Kentucky (Champ game) on route to their first and only title.

- In the 30 tournaments since seeding began in 1979:
1-seeds have won 16 times (most recent: Kansas, 2008)
2-seed have won 6 times (most recent: UConn, 2004)
3-seeds have won 4 times (most recent: Florida, 2006)
4-seeds have won 1 time (Arizona, 1997)
6-seeds have won 2 times (most recent: Kansas, 1988)
8-seeds have won 1 time (Villanova, 1985)
5-seeds have played in the championship game twice. No other seeds (7, 9-16) have ever appeared in the championship game.

- 1-seeds are 16-12 in the title game. 2-seeds are 6-8.

- This will be the 12th meeting between UNC and MSU. UNC leads the all-time series 8-3, including a thirty-point blowout in Detroit earlier this year. Four of those meetings were tournament games:
1957 (Final Four)
1998 (Sweet 16)
2005 (Final Four)
2007 (Second Round)
UNC won all four. As with tonight's game, UNC was the higher seed in every matchup (except 1957, when teams were not seeded).

- Roy Williams smells

Stupid goat

A lot's been made of the contrasting styles of UNC and MSU. The former likes to run and shoot, the latter plays a steady half-court set. Blah blah blah, you know this. But there's a difference between the MSU that lost to UNC by 35 in December and the MSU that will play for the title tomorrow: These Spartans can adapt to UNC's style and play comfortably at a frenetic pace. The rotting corpses of Kansas and Louisville are proof of this.

This promises a close(r) game, but UNC might be the best team since the '96 Kentucky Wildcats. These Heels are built like an Eastern European car: Loud, gas-guzzling and deadly from every direction. People debate what's more valuable: Star power or depth. UNC has both and that's why they've obliterated everyone in the tourny since LSU. Michigan State matches up best at the 4, and I also think Lucas will be relatively successful at containing Lawson ("relatively" means keeping him from a PTS-AST double-double). We'll have a good game for 35 minutes, and a watchable game for 37.

UNC will draw fouls and Stupid T will be the game's highest scorer.

Royboy will refrain from cursing on broadcast television as he hoists his second trophy.

For 12 months the words "National Champions" will appear next to an obtuse mascot of an angry goat with sticky hooves.

UNC 85, MSU 75

Intro

Four posts deep and I never introduced myself, so here goes:
My name's Dan. I graduated college in May '08 and now I work as a writer in the entertainment industry. As the masthead says, I'm 5'9", white, Jewish and I love sports--watching, playing, punditing.

I've been a college basketball fan since 1995, when UVa made the Elite 8 and UCLA beat Arkansas to win the title. As for my personal loyalties, I live and die by the University of Illinois Fighting Illini and the University of Virginia Cavaliers. I cried tears of joy when the Illini beat Arizona to make the Final Four in 2005, and I cried tears of sorrow a week later when we lost to North Carolina in the title game. Why these two seemingly random teams? I defer to Don Corleon's comments about the importance of family--these are the schools of my parents and the schools I grew up rooting for.

There will be a lot of basketball talk but this blog will cover all aspects of college athletics--player, games, coaches, administrators and theory. There may even be an occasional pro sports post. I promise nothing. I will occasionally refer to articles from ESPN, SI, whatever, but the stuff you read here will be significantly different in content, tone and style from what you get on the sports sites.

Topics of future posts:
- The System: Why I win my tournament pools and you don't
- Recap of the 2009 tournament and season
- Why the selection committee is getting smarter by the year
- Jayne Appel: The sexiest athlete alive
- The Colin Powell All-Stars: 1st place players on last place teams
- Grading the 1st year coaches and the new hires

Feel free to comment with suggestions. And remember, I love each and every one of you, except those that don't agree with everything I say.

98.6 and a recap

Warning! Ego indulgence ahead...okay, you've been warned. I'm in the 98.6th percentile on ESPN, after a TERRIBLE first round (19/32 games picked...I was worst in both my pools). In a later post, I'll explain my system for picking tourny games that's helped me to three 1st place finishes and five top 3 finishes in seven years. Yay me. Plus I really needed the money this year.

Nothing much to say about the semi-finals games that wasn't covered in the preview posts. I lowballed the MSU score and overshot the UNC score. Oh well. My separate ACC and Big 10 biases game into play more than they should have. I really thought the MSU/UConn game would be more of a defensive battle.

Where my predictions went wrong:
- MSU won by a comfortable margin. Why? Three reasons: 1) Bench points for MSU, specifically reserve guard Durrell Summers. 10 pts, 6 boards, a dime and a steal. 2) Guard play. 18 assists for MSU, 8 for UConn. I guess the Price was wrong...bitch! (wow, I will probably go back and edit that out tomorrow). 3) Detroit. I knew the home court thing would help, but I had no idea the crowd would energize MSU like it did. I've never said anything good about Detroit before and I probably never will again but...way to go, guys.

- Nova stuck around a bit longer than I expected, but overall this was UNC domination. Looking at the play-by-play, Nova cut the lead to 5 midway through the second half, but that was quickly reversed. Like I predicted, not much of a game here. Jay Wright is a good coach and a great recruiter. He will be back.

As for Monday? I'm sticking with my pick. UNC by 10. That said, MSU is energized and inspired. They're never out of it. I really wish I didn't have to miss this one...like I said, I haven't missed a Final Four in 12 years. The last one I missed? Four-seeded Arizona toppled heavily-favored Kentucky in overtime. This feels ominous...

Halftime Update

Just arrived at my hotel in time for the start of the second half. I'm out the door in five minutes, but a quick update:
MSU 38, UConn 36

MSU has 9 offensive boards, which is why they're winning. Offensively, UConn is doing a better-than-expected job of containing Goran Suton, but he's pulling down boards which is what's important.

Just off the numbers, I give Lucas the edge over Price--but the numbers are a terrible way of judging point guard play, so I'll defer to those of you actually watching the game.

No one in significant foul trouble, although watch for Jeff Adrian to try and draw fouls from Morgan and Suton. If MSU blows it, this will be their downfall.

Second half just started. Listening to the crowd, this is a home game for MSU--as expected.

I still feel good about picking MSU by three, although the score is probably going to be higher than my estimate. Enjoy this one, kids. The late game should be over by the 10 minute mark.

Final Four - Special Auto Industry Bailout Edition

A loss of feeling in my fingers. An empty numbness in my heart. I must be in shock. For the first time in 12 years, I will not get to watch any of the Final Four. Ugh. It's late and I need to wake up at 7:30am to go for a Jeep ride thru a canyon, so I'll get to the point: Predictions.

1) UNC over Villanova, 95-77
As big deal as we'd all like to make of this, I can't see much of a game here. Pundits can make all they want of Nova's final four run, but at the end of the day they beat the worst 1 seed and the second-worst 2 seed in the tourny. UNC is on another plane of existence. It still baffles me why they weren't the unanimous choice to win it all when the tourny started. In order to win this, Villanova needs to play as perfect a game as their '85 brothers did to beat Ewing's Georgetown Hoyas (they shot 80% in the 2nd half and still only won by 2). I will be shocked if this game is decided by less than 10 points. I don't see any area where Villanova has an edge.

2) MSU over UConn, 70-67
This game is really fascinating. I see two options: A UConn blowout or a razor-thin MSU victory. I'm going with the latter for these reasons:
1) Thabeet. He's an unbelievable defensive presence who can shut down any opponent's inside game, but he's going to have a tough time scoring on MSU. Also, MSU's big men can also hit from the outside. They only go inside on smart looks and have no trouble hitting those mid-range jumpers.
2) Guard play. MSU matches the Dyson-less Huskies step for step.
3) Rebounding margin. Thabeet should neutralize this advantage to an extent, but MSU has four guys who pull down ridiculous boards. EVen with a 7'3" monster under the rim, I still expect MSU to have more second-chance points.
4) Home court advantage. Not as big a deal as everyone is making, but it's still significant. Izzo used this Final Four to recruit a number of players currently on the roster. Also, this is a city in pain, and MSU knows it. Remember how the Yankes played in the Stadium after 9/11? I expect a similar level of emotion from these kids.
5) Tom Izzo. Best coach in the game today, hand's down. What's that you say? No, you're wrong. It's Izzo.
6) Big Games: UConn's path here was significantly easier than MSU's.
7) My gut. I picked MSU to make the championship game before the Big 10 conference tournament, and I'm sticking by that pick.

That said, UConn has much more star power than MSU. If MSU doesn't get boards and can't slow down AJ Price, this could be a Spartan massacre. I have faith in the Spartans...that is, until they run into Roy's Boys on Monday.

Coach Cal is blue

Let's get something straight: John Calipari is not the best coach in the country (it's Tom Izzo currently, Dean Smith all-time). Cal's not the best recruiter in the country and he may not be the best recruiter at his own school (read: William Wesley).

Don't get me wrong, Coach Cal is an amazing hire--maybe the best coach available--but I have to agree with Pat Forde (http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4034947) that this is a ballsy move. It's a move that reeks of desperation from a school that finds itself in the awkward and unfamiliar position of a dozen years without tasting the Final Four. For the record, Kentucky's longest stretch without a FF appearance was 9 years, from 1984-1993 (Carter, thanks for the correction)--a time period punctuated by one of the most egregious and cartoonish violations in NCAA history. Again, let me reiterate that this is a good hire and will probably get Kentucky out of its funk. But AD Mitch Barnhart didn't even let the door hit Gillispie's ass on the way out before he was at the podium introducing Cal. Let's remember, one of the problems with Gillispie is that they rushed into a hire without spending any time conducting a true search to find the RIGHT guy for the job.

Another good point Forde brings up is Big Blue's scandal-ridden history. And William Wesley is a ticking time bomb waiting to blow up whatever program is standing closest. But beyond that, let's examine Coach Cal's tenure at Memphis. The program didn't really start winning until the all the good schools abandoned the C-USA and left Memphis behind like the drunk guy passed out on the bar (when they woke up, the hotties were gone and the only ones left were UTEP, Houston, SMU and East Carolina). In the last four years, Memphis collected two 1-seeds and two 2-seeds. The result: 1 Final Four, 2 Elite eights, and 1 sweet 16. In a vacuum, those are four very good years. When you take seeding into account, Memphis actually underperformed. I guarantee that if he pulls 4 straight top seeds at Kentucky and DOESN'T bring home at least one trophy, people will be calling for his head. And don't think that he'll be pulling better players because Kentucky is Kentucky--Memphis continually brought in Top 10 recruiting classes throughout Cal's tenure, from Dajuan Wagner to DeMarcus Cousins.

Most importantly, Kentucky needs to be patient. They fired Gillispie after two seasons (after Tubby left him with nothing) that included one NCAA appearance. Before we laud Cal too much, let's look at his first 5 years in Memphis:
2000-2001: NIT
2001-2002: NIT champions ("yay!" said the 5 people that watched)
2002-2003: NCAA 7-seed, first round exit
2003-2004: NCAA 7-seed, 2nd round exit
2004-2005: NIT
And this was in the C-USA! With players like Dajuan Wagner and Darius Washington!

My prediction: Coach Cal will take Kentucky to a Final Four--in time. My question: Is UK willing to wait 8 years for him to do it? Are they willing to wait 5 years? Three? Beware the rage of a desperate school...and an AD that's in over his head.