Let's get something straight: John Calipari is not the best coach in the country (it's Tom Izzo currently, Dean Smith all-time). Cal's not the best recruiter in the country and he may not be the best recruiter at his own school (read: William Wesley).
Don't get me wrong, Coach Cal is an amazing hire--maybe the best coach available--but I have to agree with Pat Forde (http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4034947) that this is a ballsy move. It's a move that reeks of desperation from a school that finds itself in the awkward and unfamiliar position of a dozen years without tasting the Final Four. For the record, Kentucky's longest stretch without a FF appearance was 9 years, from 1984-1993 (Carter, thanks for the correction)--a time period punctuated by one of the most egregious and cartoonish violations in NCAA history. Again, let me reiterate that this is a good hire and will probably get Kentucky out of its funk. But AD Mitch Barnhart didn't even let the door hit Gillispie's ass on the way out before he was at the podium introducing Cal. Let's remember, one of the problems with Gillispie is that they rushed into a hire without spending any time conducting a true search to find the RIGHT guy for the job.
Another good point Forde brings up is Big Blue's scandal-ridden history. And William Wesley is a ticking time bomb waiting to blow up whatever program is standing closest. But beyond that, let's examine Coach Cal's tenure at Memphis. The program didn't really start winning until the all the good schools abandoned the C-USA and left Memphis behind like the drunk guy passed out on the bar (when they woke up, the hotties were gone and the only ones left were UTEP, Houston, SMU and East Carolina). In the last four years, Memphis collected two 1-seeds and two 2-seeds. The result: 1 Final Four, 2 Elite eights, and 1 sweet 16. In a vacuum, those are four very good years. When you take seeding into account, Memphis actually underperformed. I guarantee that if he pulls 4 straight top seeds at Kentucky and DOESN'T bring home at least one trophy, people will be calling for his head. And don't think that he'll be pulling better players because Kentucky is Kentucky--Memphis continually brought in Top 10 recruiting classes throughout Cal's tenure, from Dajuan Wagner to DeMarcus Cousins.
Most importantly, Kentucky needs to be patient. They fired Gillispie after two seasons (after Tubby left him with nothing) that included one NCAA appearance. Before we laud Cal too much, let's look at his first 5 years in Memphis:
2000-2001: NIT
2001-2002: NIT champions ("yay!" said the 5 people that watched)
2002-2003: NCAA 7-seed, first round exit
2003-2004: NCAA 7-seed, 2nd round exit
2004-2005: NIT
And this was in the C-USA! With players like Dajuan Wagner and Darius Washington!
My prediction: Coach Cal will take Kentucky to a Final Four--in time. My question: Is UK willing to wait 8 years for him to do it? Are they willing to wait 5 years? Three? Beware the rage of a desperate school...and an AD that's in over his head.
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First, a correction...1984-1993, 9 years. 1984 was led by All-American Kenny Walker, one of UK's forgotten stars.
ReplyDeleteSecondly, I like your overall analysis. Cal is not perfect and the recruiting violation allegations do trouble me. However, I wouldn't necessarily say that Memphis underperformed. I figured that having assaulted C-USA every year would have left Memphis woefully unprepared for the real competition they would face in the Big Dance. Yet, they managed solid performances (supported by a bit of luck, re: Bradley and Acie Law), and lost to the eventual runner-up in both Elite Eights. No shame in that. Certainly expectations will be higher at UK, but this is as good a resume as almost any coach "on the market" has.
I also disagree that he won't be able to recruit better. He himself has acknowledged that the prestige and profile of a program like Kentucky will pull in top recruits more easily. The team will play tougher non-conference and conference schedules than the Memphis teams, and thus be better prepared for the postseason.
I do wish they'd taken a bit more time with the selection, but they got a guy who has described this as his "dream job." I want my head coach to be that devoted to my team.
Unquestionably, I'm already expecting at least Sweet Sixteen next year (it's been since 2005...oh how I miss the second weekend) assuming that Meeks and Patterson both return. I know that expectations will be high, but this is Kentucky. They should be high. I'll be patient for a championship. But I want to see a Final Four within five at the latest. Cal knows that's what he's walking into.
I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on any other top coaches that would have been good choices by UK (or who might make a good choice by UConn if Calhoun goes).
Thanks for the correction on Kentucky's Final Four numbers--I've edited the post to correct. Maybe it was a subconscious slip on my part since the '84 Kentucky team knocked out Illinois in the Elite 8.
ReplyDeleteYeah, it's debatable whether Memphis underperformed or not. By Memphis standards he certainly didn't. Objectively based on seeding, he slightly underperformed. But by Kentucky standards? By comparison, from 2003-05 Tubby Smith earned two 1-seeds and a 2-seed. He made two Elite 8 appearances in 3 years and that wasn't good enough. And let's not forget the mediocre beginning Coach Cal had at Memphis--with loads of top 10 recruits.
As for recruiting, Cal was about to deliver the best recruiting class in history to Memphis (John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Xavier Henry are the #1, #2 and #3 prospects according to rivals.com, and they also had commitments from 2 more top-50 guys). DaJuan Wagner was the second-most hyped high school player in the last 10 years. I'm just not sure it's possible to recruit better than Cal did at Memphis. I agree with you about the scheduling though--Coach Cal has not yet proven that he can coach in a tough conference, and we'll see what he's made of in two years (SEC is going to be terrible next year).
You're second-to-last paragraph really highlights what I'm getting at. Without Jody Meeks, Kentucky is not a Sweet 16 team next year--probably not even a tournament team. I think your 5-year Final Four window is probably the most generous you'll find from a Kentucky fan--as it should be, really, given your history and Coach Cal's salary.
But at the end of the day, it's a great hire...so much better than Gillispie. I'm jealous, and I'd bet every other school is outside of UNC, Kansas and UCLA. I just don't think Coach Cal deserves to be the highest paid coach in the country and I worry that he's not the magic bullet that everyone thinks he is.